The part time worker brouhaha
A mini firestorm between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush about job creation and part time workers got me digging into the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
site to find just how many part time
workers wanted to work full time. What I
found was the number of part time workers in June, 2015 seeking full time jobs (two million) is not a high percentage of either part timers or of the total 149 million labor force . While
important to each individual affected, only
10% of
all part timers were actually seeking full time employment. 78
percent of part timers were part timers by choice and the rest cited other economic
reasons.
Jeb Bush, former
governor of Florida and now vying for the GOP presidential nomination, started
the war of words, when he said “that people need to work longer hours”, meaning
that part timers need to become full timers and there ought to be more full time jobs for
those seeking them. Hillary Clinton
seized upon the phrase and in a major economic address said that “what workers
wanted was a raise”.
Trend lines based on the BLS statistics also show that the
number of those who choose to work part time has remained steady even through
the ups and downs of the economy, but that those part timers seeking full time
jobs increased especially during the Great Recession of 2008. As the economy has
improved, their numbers are still historically high, but decreasing.
An more explosive political issue of concern to
65% of voters is the unfairness of the distribution of income. Uncontested is
the fact that the middle class has “hollowed out”. Neither
party nor candidates can ignore this. The
Democrats will force the GOP to defend their plans to help the middle
class because Democrats believe their own proposals have more potential appeal to the key factor of “does he/she care
about us”. Expect Democrats to propose stronger Wall Street reform, minimum wage increases, expanding pay for
overtime, paid sick leave, increased affordability of a college
education, and reform taxes so the
secretary does not pay a higher percentage than the boss. Most GOP candidates so far promise to help the
middle class by relief to the wealthy and business. That will be a harder sell to the middle class
since recent experience has taught them prosperity does not automatically trickle down to them.
Bush claims more full
time jobs can be achieved by raising growth to 4% per year, though he
was vague about how. Bush and GOP candidates need to be pinned down
on the specifics because the political devil is in those details. Will it be
tax policy, welfare, trade and spending cuts?
If so, what gets cut and who benefits?
Is 4% growth even possible?
Such sustained growth has not happened in most of American history. 5%
growth did happen under President Reagan, but many economists
owe that anomaly to an expanding
workforce when women began working. The non partisan Congressional Budget Office
projected a 3% growth in 2015-2016 and dip in the long term to 2.2 percent due
to baby boomers retiring and a shrinking workforce, a rate similar from 2009 to
now.
A version of this column appeared in the www.skyhidailynews.com July 30, 2015
A version of this column appeared in the www.skyhidailynews.com July 30, 2015
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