Hitting Russia where it hurts; decreasing EU dependency on Russian gas

The press conference held in the Hague after a meeting on nuclear issues       last week was both clarifying and revealing.  Much can be deduced about our relationship with Russia, the Ukraine situation, and the world’s view of America’s leadership, its limit of power, and in particular, Pres. Obama’s role.  The President came in for high praise from the hosting  Dutch foreign minister for his leadership.

 The goal, per the President, is to give those in Ukraine the chance to decide on their own relationship wit h the West and Russia  in May elections. Looming is the fear  Russia will  attempt to carve out a land bridge from Russia  to Crimea through Eastern Ukraine. .

 Ukraine has a Russian gun pointed at its head.. The fear is Russia will try the same tactics used  in Crimea…outside provocateurs,  gangs of irregulars, and infiltration of unmarked military personnel. . Currently massed on Ukraine’s borders are Russian troops.  Putin initiated a call to Pres. Obama, but at this writing it is unknown if Russian troops were pulled back and Russia accepted the deal to have international observers protect Russian speaking Ukrainians from the new Ukraine  government in Kiev.

A measure   to kick Russia out of the G8 and  isolate Russia  got   unanimous approval in the Netherlands . This follows Russia’s veto in the UN of a resolution upheld by 13  other  members of  the Security Council declaring Russia’s takeover of Crimea invalid.  Only China abstained.  

The original group of  Western  economic super  powers was once called the G7.  The first time Russia was  invited  to participate was when the summit was held in Denver in  1997  .  Those of us living in Colorado were eye witnesses to quite a  spectacle and the first ladies  were treated to a train ride to Winter Park and lunch.

A very important outcome in the Hague  was unanimous reaffirmation that NATO military  treaty obligations would be honored if Russia tried to expand to the Baltic states, which, like Crimea and  parts of the Ukraine  also have large populations of Russians. There are many Lithuanian immigrants in Grand  County who must be taking comfort from that.

The delicate question is how can Western Europe up the ante to  modify Russia’s  behavior  short of military action without shooting themselves or the US in ours or their  own economic  feet. The most effective way would be for Europe stop being dependent on  oil and gas from Russia. This would get Russia where it hurts since their  economy has been pumped up by sales to the West.. The EU is presenting a plan in June to wean themselves from Russian energy.

Russia is already feeling the pressure.   Rana Foroohar, writing in Time, March 24, 2014, believes “Putin’s petro state will eventually implode all by itself”,  pointing out the US that has the fastest growth in the world.   She predicted  that there would be a foreign capital flight to the US “as investors seek safety in US Treasury bills and blue-chip stocks. In economic terms, the war over Ukraine has already been won – and not by Putin.” Russian government sources confirm the flight of capita out of Russia,  $70 billion in the first quarter (as much as in all 2013); stagnation instead of forecasted growth, and inflation of 7% due to the ruble devaluation.

For more on" EU to take measures against dependency on Russian gas",
http://www.setimes.com//cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2014/03/28/feature-01
The Southeast European Times is sponsored by the US European Command, the joint military command responsible for US operations in 52 countries.
A version of this also appeared in print: http://www.skyhidailynews.com/news/opinion/10871531-113/russia-ukraine-russian-view
From the New York Times, April 17, 2014
"While the annexation of Crimea has rocketed President Vladimir V. Putin’s approval rating to more than 80 percent, it has also contributed to a sobering downturn in Russia’s economy, which was in trouble even before the West imposed sanctions. With inflation rising, growth stagnating, the ruble and stock market plunging, and billions in capital fleeing the country for safety, the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, as the country’s minister of economic development acknowledged on Wednesday."